mon, 24-dec-2012, 07:37

Thinking a little more about my previous post on the cold winter we’ve been experiencing for the past three months, it would be easier to understand the analysis if I reported average temperature for the period, rather than a cumulative value. I also realized that if there were missing days in any of the record, that this would skew the results against those years with missing data. So here’s a better query and the results through December 23rd:

SELECT year, round(cum_f / n, 2) AS avg_tempf,
       rank() OVER (ORDER BY cum_f / n) AS rank
FROM (
    SELECT year,
           CASE WHEN year = 2012 THEN round(sum(tavg_f), 2) - 261.5
                ELSE round(sum(tavg_f), 2)
           END AS cum_f,
           CASE WHEN year = 2012 THEN count(*) + 7
                ELSE count(*)
           END AS n
    FROM (
        SELECT extract(year from dte) AS year,
               extract(doy from dte) AS doy,
               (tmin_f + tmax_f) / 2.0 AS tavg_f
        FROM get_ghcnd('Fairbanks Intl Ap')
        ORDER BY year, doy
    ) AS foo
    WHERE doy between extract(doy from '2011-10-01'::date)
                  AND extract(doy from '2012-12-23'::date)
    GROUP BY year
    ORDER BY year
) AS bar
ORDER BY rank;
Average, minimum, maximum temperature (°F) for October 1st through December 23rd, ranked by average temperature over the period.
Rank Year Average temp (°F) Minimum temp (°F) Maximum temp (°F)
1 1917 -4.11 -52 57
2 1956 -3.99 -50 46
3 2012 -0.74 -47 61
4 1975 -0.01 -51 57
5 1977 0.54 -52 53
6 1942 0.92 -50 63
7 1946 0.95 -57 55
8 1961 1.33 -54 53
9 1996 1.75 -36 41
10 1966 1.92 -53 61

We’ve moved to third place on the list, with an average temperature over the period of less than zero Fahrenheit.

Here’s the same analysis for November and December (through the 23rd):

Average, minimum, maximum temperature (°F) for November 1st through December 23rd, ranked by average temperature over the period.
Rank Year Average temp (°F) Minimum temp (°F) Maximum temp (°F)
1 1917 -20.46 -52 21
2 1956 -16.81 -50 44
3 1946 -16.34 -57 33
4 1942 -14.63 -50 21
5 2012 -14.34 -47 31
6 1977 -13.86 -52 21
7 1975 -13.71 -51 30
8 1966 -10.91 -53 32
9 1906 -10.72 -50 37
10 1961 -10.05 -54 42

The Weather Service is forecasting some warmer weather starting today, so it’s likely we’ll begin to drop down the list, but it will be interesting to see where we wind up at the end of December.

Regardless, it’s been an exceptionally cold October, November and December in Fairbanks. We’re all just hanging on, hoping our houses, vehicles and other equipment continues to function until we get some warmer weather.

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